Stop Me If You’ve Heard This Before: More Plowable Snow Coming!
Wait, you're telling me 122" of snow so far this winter isn't enough? You'd like an additional pile of (free) frozen water? That can be arranged. If you're sick of snow here's a quick and gentle public service reminder: I'm just the bewildered messenger! I'm ready for spring, too.
This is already the 6th snowiest winter on record for the Twin Ports; snowfall running nearly 4 feet above average, to date. And this next system coming in Tuesday and Tuesday night will get us into the Top 5 Winter Snowfalls category, without question. I see enough snow to shovel and plow for Duluth-Superior (4-8") with lake effect enhancing amounts along the North Shore, where some 10"+ amounts are expected.
Although mostly-rain is likely in the Twin Cities, temperatures aloft should be cold enough for all-snow across the Northland, with a little sleet mixing in south of Duluth-Superior. The dark blue above shows predicted areas of heavier snow at midnight Tuesday night, orange is sleet, green is rain.
Plowable snow is predicted by NOAA's models over roughly the northern half of Minnesota, with some 10" amounts possible near the North Shore, the result of "orographic lifting" - air rising up and over the higher terrain, giving snowfall rates an added boost. When models generally agree our confidence levels go up, increasing the probability that this will, in fact, probably be enough snow to shovel and plow for most of us.
A little good news: this next snow event will NOT be followed by an arctic slap. Daytime highs across the Northland are generally above freezing from Wednesday through the end of March.
No rapid thaws are brewing, which is good news, considering the 9" of liquid water locked up in our snow pack. Again, as much as some of us are ready to turn the page and complain about thunderstorms, humidity and skeeters, a sudden rush of warmth and rain might trigger more serious spring flooding.
Slow and steady. With an extra serving of snow this winter.