Updates On Messy Mid-Week Snow Storm That Could Bring Over A Foot Of Snow To Parts Of Minnesota
Last week, we shared details about a 'messy' mid-week winter storm targeting Minnesota for this week. As we have gotten closer, the details about this incoming storm event have gotten clearer.
The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for 20 Northern Minnesota counties, highlighting the potential of this winter storm set to impact the region through the middle part of the week.
The word "messy" is still very much in play, with ice, mixed precip, and snow all part of what could happen across the region. Here's the latest.
What kind of precipitation is going to fall? When will it change to all snow?
Tuesday will see rain and a wintry mix falling as the system moves in from west to east. As temperatures fall Tuesday night, precipitation will change to snow across Northern Minnesota and the northern parts of Wisconsin. This includes areas like Duluth, Grand Rapids, Bemidji, and places north.
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Places a little further south, like Brainerd, Hinckley, and Haywar,d will see that change-over to snow happening through the early hours of Wednesday.
The heaviest of the snow is anticipated after rain/mixed precip changes to snow, with the heaviest snow anticipated in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Snow chances will continue across the region by Thursday, with some lingering snow possible on Friday.
How much snow is expected?
There is still some uncertainty for snowfall amounts, but the path looks to bring the heaviest snow to areas north of Highway 2.
A majority of Northern Minnesota has a window of as little as 1-3 inches, all the way up to nearly a foot, with the North Shore seeing a possibility of nearly two feet on the high end. Here's a look at the expected snow totals and the extreme high and low end forecasts.
The 'expected' snowfall amounts
This composite graphic from the Grand Forks and Duluth offices of the National Weather Service shows what the experts expect for snowfall amounts. You'll notice a large window. Lots of Northern Minnesota, according to this, couldsee anywhere from a couple of inches up to 7 or 8, with the North Shore anywhere from half a foot to over a foot.
The 'high-end' snowfall forecast
Forecasts are all generated by identifying what the most likely outcome is of a series of weather models, all of which suggest different things happening. The map above is what is "expected', while the map below shows what could be on the high end of what is possible with this storm.
This "worst case scenario" map shows nearly a foot across much of Northern Minnesota, with nearly two feet on parts of the North Shore. It is important to note that this is not a likely outcome. Just the high end of what this storm could bring.
The 'low end' snowfall forecast
If you're not a snow lover, this would be the "best case scenario" forecast, looking at the low end of what could happen with this week's storm.
This low-end outcome shows 2 or fewer inches of snow across most of the region, with a small area of 4-6 inches along the North Shore. It is important to note that this is not a likely outcome. Just the low end of what this storm could bring.
More clarity will continue to come in the hours before the storm, then we'll get to live through whatever happens and see how accurate the forecasts were.